Account Executive
Community Wholesale Lending
License:
ML Mortgage Corp. dba Community Wholesale Lending
("CWL") NMLS362312

Steady Gains in the PM Hours

Steady Gains in the PM Hours

It's common to see the effects of month/quarter-end trading most prominently in the PM hours and today's quarter-end session was no exception. A glut of bond buying just after 12:30pm got the part started and yields bottomed out just before the 4pm NYSE close.  While 4pm is a time that's associated with stocks, it has come to be the larger of the two closing bells for the bond market on month/quarter-end days for a variety of reasons (de-emphasis of CME pit over the years, increased prevalence of ETF trading, large portfolio rebalancing that involves both stock/bond ETFs, thus arguing for one unified closing mark time). From here, econ data should take the wheel although it's always possible to see some new-month positions have an impact on the first day of a new month. 

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Winning streak Continues

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 100.03 -0.03 10YR 4.219% -0.005% 6/30/2025 9:33PM EST
Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the notion that market move for logical underlying reasons.  To be fair, month-end volatility also has logical underlying reasons, but the logic requires a fairly deep dive (which is why we have a primer on the topic). Today's only econ data is/was Chicago PMI which has already come and gone with no fanfare.  Trading lev...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.67% -0.05% 15YR Fixed 5.91% -0.05% 6/30/2025
April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6's."  Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time.  Just a few days ago, we noted there was still a ways to go before breaking below those early April levels, but the past few days have taken us within striking distance.  The average lender is now only 0.07% higher than they were on April 4th and that's a gap that can be traversed in as little as one day under the ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 30
9:45AM Jun Chicago PMI Jun 40.4 43 40.5
10:00AM Fed Bostic Speech
1:00PM Fed Golsbee Speech
Tuesday, Jul 01
9:30AM Fed Chair Powell Speech
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Manuf. PMI Jun 52 52
10:00AM Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment Jun 46.8
10:00AM May Construction spending (%) May -0.1% -0.4%
10:00AM May JOLTs Job Quits (ml) May 3.194M
10:00AM May USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) May 7.3M 7.391M
10:00AM Jun ISM Mfg Prices Paid Jun 69 69.4
10:00AM Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI Jun 48.8 48.5
10:10AM Jul IBD economic optimism Jul 50.1 49.2
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After going to great lengths to explain why the Fed Funds Rate isn't the same as mortgage rates, we'll now have to discuss how the Fed nonetheless found a way to push rates lower this week. We already know the Fed held rates steady last week, and we've discussed the fact that mortgage rates wouldn't necessarily have fallen even if the Fed had cut the Fed Funds Rate. But mortgage rates definitel... READ MORE
Account Executive
Community Wholesale Lending
License:
ML Mortgage Corp. dba Community Wholesale Lending
("CWL") NMLS362312