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AM Data Possibly Arguing For a Bounce
AM Data Possibly Arguing For a Bounce
Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somewhat more debatable with headline levels slightly stronger than expected, but some internal components remaining bond-friendly. Job openings data was less equivocal, suggesting a marked bounce versus last month's lower levels (and the previous month's cycle lows). In other words, job openings now look more like they're leveling off after falling rapidly from 2022 through late 2024 or early 2025, depending on how one chooses to view the trend. Bonds have been more interested in responding to the job openings data, and this has MBS moving quickly back to yesterday's lows and yields near yesterday's highs.
slightly stronger overnight, but progressively weaker in the AM--especially after 10am econ data. MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.256
10yr yields are up 5bp at 4.273. MBS down a quarter point.
Modest recovery. MBS down only 5 ticks (.16) now. 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.25
Winning streak Continues
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jul 01 | |||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jun | 52.9 | 52 | 52 |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jun | 45.0 | 47 | 46.8 |
| 10:00AM | May Construction spending (%) | May | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
| 10:00AM | May JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | May | 3.293M | 3.194M | |
| 10:00AM | May USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | May | 7.769M | 7.3M | 7.391M |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jun | 69.7 | 69 | 69.4 |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jun | 49.0 | 48.8 | 48.5 |
| 10:10AM | Jul IBD economic optimism | Jul | 48.6 | 50.1 | 49.2 |
| 7:00PM | Jun Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jun | 15.3M | 15.5M | 15.65M |
| Wednesday, Jul 02 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/27 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/27 | 165.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/27 MBA Refi Index | Jun/27 | 713.4 | ||
| 7:30AM | Jun Challenger layoffs (k) | Jun | 93.816K | ||
| 8:15AM | Jun ADP jobs (k) | Jun | 95K | 37K | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/27 | -2.26M | -5.836M | |
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