Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data

Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data

After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon's levels ahead of the 10am data.  JOLTS (job openings) pushed yields back to yesterday's highs--perhaps with some help from the Senate's passage of the spending bill, but at that point, traders bought the dip in bond prices and pushed back into the day's range.  It wasn't enough to get back to positive territory, but it made the day less of an obvious turning point in the bigger-picture.  Perhaps a better way to say it would be that bonds still look open-minded when it comes to responding to Thursday's jobs report and next week's CPI.

Latest Video Analysis

Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.85 -0.08 10YR 4.285% +0.046% 7/2/2025 5:00PM EST
ADP Employment -33k vs 95k f'cast, 29k prev Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session but are erasing those losses after ADP employment came out much weaker than expected. 10yr yields are still slightly higher on the day, up 3bps at 4.27, but this has to do with yield curve steepening.  5yr yields, on the other hand, are back to unchanged. MBS are also back to unchanged, which is understandable given their closer relationship with 5yr...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.73% +0.06% 15YR Fixed 5.97% +0.06% 7/2/2025
It's been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months.  Some lenders may be higher or lower than they were yesterday depending on whether or not changed rates yesterday afternoon. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day, but can "reprice" if the underlying bond market moves enough in one direction or the other. Bonds improved enough yesterday afternoon for many lenders to offer slightly lower rates.&n...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 02
7:00AM Jun/27 MBA Purchase Index Jun/27 165.3 165.2
7:00AM Jun/27 MBA Refi Index Jun/27 759.7 713.4
7:30AM Jun Challenger layoffs (k) Jun 47.999K 93.816K
8:15AM Jun ADP jobs (k) Jun -33K 95K 37K
10:30AM Jun/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jun/27 3.845M -2M -5.836M
Thursday, Jul 03
8:30AM Jun Average earnings mm (%) Jun 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
8:30AM May Trade Gap (bl) May $-71.5B $-71B $-61.6B
8:30AM Jun/21 Continued Claims (ml) Jun/21 1964K 1960K 1974K
8:30AM Jun Non Farm Payrolls (k) Jun 147K 110K 139K
8:30AM Jun/28 Jobless Claims (k) Jun/28 233K 240K 236K
8:30AM Jun Unemployment rate mm (%) Jun 4.1% 4.3% 4.2%
8:30AM Jun Participation Rate Jun 62.3% 62.4%
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Services PMI Jun 52.9 53.1 53.7
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Composite PMI Jun 52.9 52.8 53
10:00AM May Factory orders mm (%) May 8.2% 8.2% -3.7%
10:00AM Jun ISM Biz Activity Jun 54.2 50.0
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Prices Jun 67.5 68.7
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Employment Jun 47.2 50.7
10:00AM Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI Jun 50.8 50.5 49.9
11:00AM Fed Bostic Speech
2:00PM Happy 4th!!
Read My Latest Newsletter
After going to great lengths to explain why the Fed Funds Rate isn't the same as mortgage rates, we'll now have to discuss how the Fed nonetheless found a way to push rates lower this week. We already know the Fed held rates steady last week, and we've discussed the fact that mortgage rates wouldn't necessarily have fallen even if the Fed had cut the Fed Funds Rate. But mortgage rates definitel... READ MORE