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Bonds Think About Rallying on ADP Data, But Already Getting Cold Feet
Bonds Think About Rallying on ADP Data, But Already Getting Cold Feet
ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples of a "miss" of this size prompting a swift rally on the bond market. Although that looked like it could have been in the works in the first few minutes, bonds have since reversed course and moved back in line with weaker overnight levels. What's up with that? To some extent, global bond markets are experiencing some pressure from a massive rout in UK debt over fiscal spending fears. Then there's the simple fact that ADP has such a hit and miss track record when it comes to predicting NFP. Recently, ADP has drifted much lower without NFP following suit.
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 02 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/27 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/27 | 165.3 | 165.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/27 MBA Refi Index | Jun/27 | 759.7 | 713.4 | |
| 7:30AM | Jun Challenger layoffs (k) | Jun | 47.999K | 93.816K | |
| 8:15AM | Jun ADP jobs (k) | Jun | -33K | 95K | 37K |
| 10:30AM | Jun/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/27 | 3.845M | -2M | -5.836M |
| Thursday, Jul 03 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May Trade Gap (bl) | May | $-71.5B | $-71B | $-61.6B |
| 8:30AM | Jun/21 Continued Claims (ml) | Jun/21 | 1964K | 1960K | 1974K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Participation Rate | Jun | 62.3% | 62.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Average earnings mm (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jun/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/28 | 233K | 240K | 236K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Jun | 147K | 110K | 139K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jun | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Composite PMI | Jun | 52.9 | 52.8 | 53 |
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Services PMI | Jun | 52.9 | 53.1 | 53.7 |
| 10:00AM | May Factory orders mm (%) | May | 8.2% | 8.2% | -3.7% |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Prices | Jun | 67.5 | 68.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Employment | Jun | 47.2 | 50.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Biz Activity | Jun | 54.2 | 50.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jun | 50.8 | 50.5 | 49.9 |
| 11:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
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