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Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was even in line with expectations. After it came out stronger than expected (especially in terms of the unemployment rate at 4.1 vs 4.3 f'cast), it was off to the races for bond sellers. The short end of the yield curve has the most in common with Fed rate expectations, so it took the most damage, but MBS fared far better. Perhaps that has something to do with the government not issuing MBS to fund the just-passed spending bill or perhaps it is a nod to next week's uncertain levels of demand for the scheduled Treasury auctions. Either way, we won't complain. Friday is closed for the holiday, and next week may as well be a holiday because everyone's waiting for July 15th CPI.
Sharply weaker after jobs data, but recovering somewhat. MBS down an eighth of a point and 10yr up 5bps at 4.33
Very flat after AM sell-off, and now closed for the day. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 6.7bps at 4.347
Big Market Reaction, But MBS Outperform
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jul 03 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May Trade Gap (bl) | May | $-71.5B | $-71B | $-61.6B |
| 8:30AM | Jun/21 Continued Claims (ml) | Jun/21 | 1964K | 1960K | 1974K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Participation Rate | Jun | 62.3% | 62.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Average earnings mm (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jun/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/28 | 233K | 240K | 236K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Jun | 147K | 110K | 139K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jun | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Composite PMI | Jun | 52.9 | 52.8 | 53 |
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Services PMI | Jun | 52.9 | 53.1 | 53.7 |
| 10:00AM | May Factory orders mm (%) | May | 8.2% | 8.2% | -3.7% |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Prices | Jun | 67.5 | 68.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Services Employment | Jun | 47.2 | 50.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Biz Activity | Jun | 54.2 | 50.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jun | 50.8 | 50.5 | 49.9 |
| 11:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
| Friday, Jul 04 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Happy 4th!! | ||||
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