Branch Manager- Broker- Loan Originator
The Woods Mortgage Team- Powered By My Community Mortgage
License:
833399

Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform

Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform

Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was even in line with expectations.  After it came out stronger than expected (especially in terms of the unemployment rate at 4.1 vs 4.3 f'cast), it was off to the races for bond sellers.  The short end of the yield curve has the most in common with Fed rate expectations, so it took the most damage, but MBS fared far better.  Perhaps that has something to do with the government not issuing MBS to fund the just-passed spending bill or perhaps it is a nod to next week's uncertain levels of demand for the scheduled Treasury auctions. Either way, we won't complain. Friday is closed for the holiday, and next week may as well be a holiday because everyone's waiting for July 15th CPI.

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Big Market Reaction, But MBS Outperform

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.64 -0.20 10YR 4.347% +0.067% 7/3/2025 5:59PM EST
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, the morning has proceeded almost exactly as expected. We assumed that even an on-target result was worth a bit of bond market weakness given the apparent "lead-off" induced by preceding data. The moderately stronger result (147k vs 110k f'cast) was more than enough to add some emphasis to the sell-off.  Add the 0.2% drop in ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.75% +0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.98% +0.01% 7/3/2025
Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report.  This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as much consistent power to cause volatility in the rate market.  Today's was particularly important because a perpetually decent labor market is the main justification for the Fed to wait and see if tariffs have an impact on inflation before proceeding with additional rate cuts. In other words, if unemployment were ris...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jul 03
8:30AM May Trade Gap (bl) May $-71.5B $-71B $-61.6B
8:30AM Jun/21 Continued Claims (ml) Jun/21 1964K 1960K 1974K
8:30AM Jun Participation Rate Jun 62.3% 62.4%
8:30AM Jun Average earnings mm (%) Jun 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
8:30AM Jun/28 Jobless Claims (k) Jun/28 233K 240K 236K
8:30AM Jun Non Farm Payrolls (k) Jun 147K 110K 139K
8:30AM Jun Unemployment rate mm (%) Jun 4.1% 4.3% 4.2%
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Composite PMI Jun 52.9 52.8 53
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Services PMI Jun 52.9 53.1 53.7
10:00AM May Factory orders mm (%) May 8.2% 8.2% -3.7%
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Prices Jun 67.5 68.7
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Employment Jun 47.2 50.7
10:00AM Jun ISM Biz Activity Jun 54.2 50.0
10:00AM Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI Jun 50.8 50.5 49.9
11:00AM Fed Bostic Speech
2:00PM Happy 4th!!
Friday, Jul 04
12:00AM Happy 4th!!
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After a few good weeks for interest rates, things hit a bit of a speed bump this week thanks to a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The week started quietly. There was no important economic news on Monday, but behind the scenes, there was still plenty going on. Big financial firms often need to “rebalance” their investments at the end of a month or quarter—especially if stoc... READ MORE
Branch Manager- Broker- Loan Originator
The Woods Mortgage Team- Powered By My Community Mortgage
License:
833399