Residential and Commercial Real Estate FInance
Homeplus Mortgage
License:
NMLS 339261
NMLS 2415712

Correction Starting to Level Off?

Correction Starting to Level Off?

Even though very little changed during the course of the trading day, one potentially important thing happened.  Rather than start weaker and continue to lose ground throughout the session, bonds managed to stop the bleeding early and then push back toward unchanged levels by the end of the day. This is the kind of thing typically seen when a corrective trend is running out of steam in the short term. While this doesn't make the bond market immune from another motivation to sell, it suggests that the market is now open to suggestion from either bulls or bears, and that's an upgrade from the selling bias seen on Monday.

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Correction Starting to Level Off

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.43 -0.02 10YR 4.421% +0.015% 7/9/2025 8:26AM EST
Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front. It seems like only yesterday that the "90 day pause" went into effect and now, here we are 89 days later with some last-minute edits to the plan. Monday's news involved letters to multiple trade partners announcing new tariff rates effective August 1st--basically a threat to make a deal or else. The more formal nature of the le...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.77% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 5.98% -0.04% 7/9/2025
Bad news first: mortgage rates have been moving steadily higher in July with the average top tier 30yr fixed scenario rising from 6.67% to 6.81% in just 4 business days.  This isn't an incredibly abrupt move, but it's slightly brisk compared to the average day of rate movement. The good news is twofold. First off, we often tend to see slightly brisk movement in the opposite direction after experiencing a consistent trend in the other direction. The month of June was ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 09
7:00AM Jul/04 MBA Refi Index Jul/04 829.3 759.7
7:00AM Jul/04 MBA Purchase Index Jul/04 180.9 165.3
10:00AM May Wholesale inventories mm (%) May -0.3% -0.3% 0.1%
10:30AM Jul/04 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jul/04 7.07M -2M 3.845M
10:30AM NY Fed Treasury Purchases Bill 0 to 1 yrs (%) $75 million
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
Thursday, Jul 10
8:30AM Jul/05 Jobless Claims (k) Jul/05 235K 233K
8:30AM Jun/28 Continued Claims (ml) Jun/28 1980K 1964K
10:00AM Fed Musalem Speech
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 22
1:00PM 30-Year Bond Auction 4.844%
1:15PM Fed Waller Speech
2:30PM Fed Daly Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
After a few good weeks for interest rates, things hit a bit of a speed bump this week thanks to a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The week started quietly. There was no important economic news on Monday, but behind the scenes, there was still plenty going on. Big financial firms often need to “rebalance” their investments at the end of a month or quarter—especially if stoc... READ MORE
Residential and Commercial Real Estate FInance
Homeplus Mortgage
License:
NMLS 339261
NMLS 2415712