What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of two separate reactions--one for the top line CPI numbers and one for a deeper look at the internal components. Those internals show that tariffs are having an impact even though it was a smaller impact than many forecasters were expecting. Bonds didn't seem to care at first. When a new glut of trades came online at the 9:30am NYSE open, that changed. Both stocks and bonds sold off sharply starting at 9:30am and this move looks far more convincing that the initial rally.
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tuesday, Jul 15 | |||||
8:30AM | Jul NY Fed Manufacturing | Jul | 5.50 | -9 | -16.00 |
8:30AM | Jun y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jun | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
8:30AM | Jun m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
8:30AM | Jun y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jun | 2.9% | 3% | 2.8% |
8:30AM | Jun m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
9:15AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
12:45PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
2:45PM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
7:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
Wednesday, Jul 16 | |||||
12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
7:00AM | Jul/11 MBA Refi Index | Jul/11 | 767.6 | 829.3 | |
7:00AM | Jul/11 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/11 | 159.6 | 180.9 | |
8:30AM | Jun Producer Prices (%) | Jun | 0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
8:30AM | Jun Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Jun | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
8:30AM | Jun Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Jun | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3% |
9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
9:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
10:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
10:30AM | Jul/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/11 | -1.8M | 7.07M | |
2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
6:30PM | Fed Williams Speech |