What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of two separate reactions--one for the top line CPI numbers and one for a deeper look at the internal components. Those internals show that tariffs are having an impact even though it was a smaller impact than many forecasters were expecting. Bonds didn't seem to care at first. When a new glut of trades came online at the 9:30am NYSE open, that changed. Both stocks and bonds sold off sharply starting at 9:30am and this move looks far more convincing that the initial rally.
Slightly stronger after PPI. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.46
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/11 MBA Refi Index | Jul/11 | 767.6 | 829.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/11 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/11 | 159.6 | 180.9 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Producer Prices (%) | Jun | 0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Jun | 0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Jun | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3% |
| 9:15AM | Jun Industrial Production (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 9:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jul/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/11 | -3.859M | -0.9M | 7.07M |
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Jul 17 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (%) | Jun | 0.1% | -0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul/12 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/12 | 235K | 227K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Jun | 0.3% | -0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Index | Jul | -1 | -4.0 | |
| 8:30AM | Jul/05 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/05 | 1970K | 1965K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Import prices mm (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Export prices mm (%) | Jun | 0% | -0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jul | 41.40 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jun | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | May Business Inventories (% ) | May | 0% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul NAHB housing market indx | Jul | 33 | 32 | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
