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Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on the outcome of the 8:30am economic data, you'd be very well justified in assuming some selling/weakness. While that may have been the case for a few moments, it was quickly replaced by bond buying as traders parsed the Retail Sales internals, revisions, and especially the inflation-adjusted spending implications. In a nutshell, the report showed an ongoing downtrend in discretionary consumer spending and that ended up being the trade of the day--even if it wasn't a super huge trade. This was enough to keep bonds in positive territory for most of the day, despite an afternoon correction back to unchanged levels.
10yr yields are up 1bp at 4.468. MBS are down 2 ticks (.06)
In positive territory now with MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.44
MBS back to unchanged on the day and down an eighth from highs. 10yr up half a bp at 4.463
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jul 17 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Jun | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul/05 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/05 | 1956K | 1970K | 1965K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Import prices mm (%) | Jun | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Export prices mm (%) | Jun | 0.5% | 0% | -0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jul | 58.80 | 41.40 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales (%) | Jun | 0.6% | 0.1% | -0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Philly Fed Business Index | Jul | 15.9 | -1 | -4.0 |
| 8:30AM | Jul/12 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/12 | 221K | 235K | 227K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jun | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 10:00AM | May Business Inventories (% ) | May | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10:00AM | Jul NAHB housing market indx | Jul | 33 | 33 | 32 |
| 10:00AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| Friday, Jul 18 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Building Permits (ml) | Jun | 1.39M | 1.394M | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jun | 1.30M | 1.256M | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jul | 5% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jul | 4% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul U Mich conditions | Jul | 63.9 | 64.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jul | 61.5 | 60.7 | |
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