Needle Threaded. Now What?
Needle Threaded. Now What?
As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms of their impact on bonds/rates. For instance, this week's CPI could have caused a big move higher or lower. Same story with Trump/Powell headlines. Realized impacts of high-potential-energy events can vary quite a bit. All too often, separate considerations, data line-items, or headlines and subsequent retractions act as offsetting penalties that return the bond market to the original line of scrimmage. Such was the case this week and Friday didn't do anything to change that. In fact, it solidified the feat. From here, in terms of what's on the calendar, apart from the lame duck Fed announcement at the end of July, we're mostly waiting for the next jobs report in early August.
Modestly stronger overnight and sideways so far. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.431
Sideways to slightly stronger. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.42
Same levels as the last update and that's a wrap for the week. Bonds almost perfectly unchanged from last Friday.
Needle Threaded. Now What
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jul 18 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Building Permits (ml) | Jun | 1.397M | 1.39M | 1.394M |
| 8:30AM | Jun Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jun | 1.321M | 1.30M | 1.256M |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jul | 4.4% | 5% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jul | 3.6% | 4% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul U Mich conditions | Jul | 66.8 | 63.9 | 64.8 |
| 10:00AM | Jul Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jul | 61.8 | 61.5 | 60.7 |
| Monday, Jul 21 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Jun CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jun | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
