Needle Threaded. Now What?

Needle Threaded. Now What?

As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms of their impact on bonds/rates.  For instance, this week's CPI could have caused a big move higher or lower. Same story with Trump/Powell headlines. Realized impacts of high-potential-energy events can vary quite a bit.  All too often, separate considerations, data line-items, or headlines and subsequent retractions act as offsetting penalties that return the bond market to the original line of scrimmage. Such was the case this week and Friday didn't do anything to change that.  In fact, it solidified the feat. From here, in terms of what's on the calendar, apart from the lame duck Fed announcement at the end of July, we're mostly waiting for the next jobs report in early August.

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Needle Threaded. Now What

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.44 +0.20 10YR 4.356% -0.064% 7/21/2025 10:15AM EST
At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break?  Friday's calendar offers respite with only Consumer Sentiment and residential construction numbers.  Neither are market movers.  As such, because bonds were green overnight, they remain green as we head into the afternoon. If markets closed right now, we'd be perfectly unchanged on the week.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.78% -0.03% 15YR Fixed 6.04% +0.00% 7/21/2025
While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares reserved for a big reaction to inflation data.  Specifically, Tuesday's inflation data had the power to cause a big move in rates.  While it was the week's biggest influence, rates actually managed to hold flat overall. Friday did very little to alter that reality. By Thursday, we were already back in line with last week...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jul 21
10:00AM Jun CB Leading Index MoM (%) Jun -0.3% -0.2% -0.1%
Tuesday, Jul 22
8:30AM Fed Chair Powell Speech
1:00PM Fed Bowman Speech
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It was a hotly anticipated week, mainly due to the scheduled release of important inflation data on Tuesday, but the rate market almost got more than it bargained for thanks to unexpected headlines the following day. Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided the first major, national glimpse of inflation in June. It was also the biggest opportunity yet to see whether ta... READ MORE