Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day

Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day

Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave the markets more insight to his role in defusing last week's frenzy over the potential ouster. In short, he's the voice of reason and the bond market likes that. Additional gains came courtesy of 9:30am NYSE tradeflows.  At the time, stocks were sinking. Then in the afternoon, stocks rebounded without pulling bond yields higher.

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AM Gains Remain Despite Stock Market Reversal

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.50 -0.01 10YR 4.358% +0.012% 7/23/2025 8:04AM EST
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity .  This can spill over to the bond market in unpredictable ways, but so far this week, it's been helpful--especially at the 9:30am NYSE open. A few hours before that, bonds moved into positive territory following a series of comments from Bessent.  Topics included trade negotiations and Fed Chair Powell. Bessent doesn't see a need ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.78% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.04% +0.01% 7/23/2025
Last week, we got a sneak preview of how the market would react to Fed Chair Powell ending his term early. In a nutshell, only the shortest-term rates would improve while most consumer rates would move higher--including mortgages. This isn't conjecture, but rather the actual response in the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates ).  Thankfully, the response reversed after Trump said he wasn't planning on firing Powell. Nonetheless, doubt remains as to whether Powel...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 23
7:00AM Jul/18 MBA Purchase Index Jul/18 165.1 159.6
7:00AM Jul/18 MBA Refi Index Jul/18 747.5 767.6
10:00AM Jun Existing home sales (ml) Jun 3.93M 4.01M 4.03M
10:00AM Jun Exist. home sales % chg (%) Jun -2.7% 0.8%
10:30AM Jul/18 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jul/18 -3.169M -1.6M -3.859M
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
Thursday, Jul 24
8:00AM Jun Building Permits (ml) Jun 1.397M 1.394M
8:30AM Jul/12 Continued Claims (ml) Jul/12 1960K 1956K
8:30AM Jul/19 Jobless Claims (k) Jul/19 227K 221K
9:45AM Jul S&P Global Composite PMI Jul 52.9
9:45AM Jul S&P Global Manuf. PMI Jul 52.6 52.9
9:45AM Jul S&P Global Services PMI Jul 53.0 52.9
10:00AM Jun New Home Sales (ml) Jun 0.65M 0.623M
10:00AM Jun New Home Sales (%) (%) Jun -13.7%
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 21
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It was a hotly anticipated week, mainly due to the scheduled release of important inflation data on Tuesday, but the rate market almost got more than it bargained for thanks to unexpected headlines the following day. Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided the first major, national glimpse of inflation in June. It was also the biggest opportunity yet to see whether ta... READ MORE