Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing

Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing

Despite a few inconsequential ups and downs, bonds ultimately traded with forgettable, sideways momentum this week. Friday did nothing to change that--especially after mid-day gains courtesy of optimism surrounding over-the-weekend trade talks between the U.S. and the EU. The gains corresponded with the news headlines about the U.S./EU meeting and bonds held steadily sideways after that. The incoming week is completely different in terms of calendar-based volatility potential.  There are relevant events on every single day culminating with "peak relevance" in the form of Friday's big jobs report. 

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Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.33 +0.02 10YR 4.387% -0.011% 7/25/2025 5:00PM EST
Bonds were initially stronger, then weaker in the overnight session.  There was a bit of additional selling in the first hour, but none of it corresponded with the 8:30am Durable Goods data. Notably, the data was much weaker than expected.  This helps reinforce our lack of interest in this particular report as a potential market mover. Bigger volume followed a series of Trump comments just after 9am ET. Trump said he's meeting with UK prime minister tonight, he does...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.81% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.05% +0.00% 7/25/2025
It's no great secret that the outgoing week didn't offer much in terms of hotly anticipated events with the power to make or break momentum in the rate market.  But as it happened, there was ultimately no impact whatsoever by the time Friday afternoon rolled around.  Actually, rates were already 'unchanged' on the week as of yesterday afternoon.  Friday just happened to be unchanged as well. In terms of the bond market movement underlying the mortgage rate st...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 25
8:30AM Jun Durable goods (%) Jun -9.3% -10.8% 16.4%
8:30AM Jun Core CapEx (%) Jun -0.7% 0.2% 1.7%
Monday, Jul 28
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
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Mortgage rates ended the week at exactly the same levels as last Friday on  average.  This isn't too surprising given the extremely light and inconsequential nature of this week's scheduled economic data. Things get highly consequential next week with the arrival of the monthly jobs report—a cornerstone of market movement that nearly always generates one of the biggest trading d... READ MORE