Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
The bond market was in flow state on Tuesday with decent overnight gains, steady buying after economic data, a strong 7-yr auction despite the rally, and additional buying after the 7-yr auction. It was as if every cue was a green light for buyers. This can be rationalized as a combination of decently friendly data and Treasury supply timing. Yesterday's auctions didn't benefit from the updated Treasury borrowing estimates. Also, those buyers weren't sure how today's auctions would go. By the time we got to today's 7-yr, we knew what the quarterly refunding announcement looked like, all the other auctions were out of the way, data was reasonably helpful, and we suspect some early month-end buyers thought the time was right to get what they needed for Thursday. Perfect little storm? Sure, why not? Continuation likely requires more friendly data tomorrow. Bonds won't want to take too big a lead-off ahead of NFP Friday without serious justification.
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 30 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/25 MBA Refi Index | Jul/25 | 739.3 | 747.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/25 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/25 | 155.6 | 165.1 | |
| 8:15AM | Jul ADP jobs (k) | Jul | 104K | 75K | -33K |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP (%) | Q2 | 3% | 2.4% | -0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP deflator (%) | Q2 | 2% | 2.2% | 3.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q2 | 6.3% | -3.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q2 | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% |
| 10:00AM | Jun Pending Home Sales (%) | Jun | -0.8% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 10:30AM | Jul/25 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/25 | 7.698M | -2M | -3.169M |
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| 2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Jul 31 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Jul Challenger layoffs (k) | Jul | 47.999K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Jun | 2.7% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul/19 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/19 | 1960K | 1955K | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Employment costs (%) | Q2 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Personal Income (%) | Jun | 0.2% | -0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Jun | 0.4% | -0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul/26 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/26 | 224K | 217K | |
| 9:45AM | Jul Chicago PMI | Jul | 42 | 40.4 | |
