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Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session and this morning's economic data did little to change that. The initial reaction may have involved a modicum of selling, but it was fully erased by 11:15am. The PM hours saw both stocks and bonds paring long positions for July's final marks. The typical closing bells (3pm and 4pm) accounted for most of the losses. Bonds ultimately gave up all of the overnight gains, but remain close enough to 'unchanged' heading into Friday's big jobs report.
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jul 31 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Jul Challenger layoffs (k) | Jul | 62.075K | 47.999K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul/19 Continued Claims (ml) | Jul/19 | 1946K | 1960K | 1955K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Personal Income (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Jun | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Jul/26 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/26 | 218K | 224K | 217K |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jun | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Employment costs (%) | Q2 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 9:45AM | Jul Chicago PMI | Jul | 47.1 | 42 | 40.4 |
| Friday, Aug 01 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Participation Rate | Jul | 62.2% | 62.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Average earnings mm (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jul | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Jul | 73K | 110K | 147K |
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jul | 49.8 | 49.5 | 52.9 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Construction spending (%) | Jun | -0.4% | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jul | 43.4 | 45.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jul | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jul | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jul | 61.7 | 62 | 60.7 |
| 10:00AM | Jul U Mich conditions | Jul | 68.0 | 66.8 | 64.8 |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jul | 64.8 | 70 | 69.7 |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jul | 48.0 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| 3:10PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
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