Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness
Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness
"Revision" is the word of the day as every armchair economist struggles to understand how the NFP revisions could be so big. Given that it's not 2020 or 2021, today's revisions were indeed on the large side (those years were MUCH larger... 2021's average NFP revisions was 159k). It speaks to a marked deterioration in the labor market or some limitation in BLS manpower/funding or methodology. Either way, markets traded it in a massive way. 2yr yields (more closely linked to Fed Funds Rate expectations) fell almost 30bps! Mortgage rates are back to mid October levels.
Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Aug 01 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Average earnings mm (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jul | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Jul | 73K | 110K | 147K |
| 8:30AM | Jul Participation Rate | Jul | 62.2% | 62.3% | |
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jul | 49.8 | 49.5 | 52.9 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Construction spending (%) | Jun | -0.4% | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jul | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jul | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jul | 61.7 | 62 | 60.7 |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jul | 48.0 | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jul | 43.4 | 45.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jul | 64.8 | 70 | 69.7 |
| 10:00AM | Jul U Mich conditions | Jul | 68.0 | 66.8 | 64.8 |
| 3:10PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| Monday, Aug 04 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jul | 16.4M | 16.0M | 15.3M |
| 10:00AM | Jun Factory orders mm (%) | Jun | -4.8% | -4.9% | 8.2% |