Calmly Closing at Best Levels Since April

Calmly Closing at Best Levels Since April

As far as post-NFP Mondays go, this was a calm one.  Bonds never strayed too far from 'unchanged' and managed to close at just slightly stronger levels. For MBS, this marked the best closing levels since early April, and we're very close to the best levels since October (a fact reflected in lender rate sheets being the lowest since October). Treasury yields aren't doing quite as well versus April's lows (a fact that reflects the lingering impacts of tariffs and fiscal policy on Treasury-specific demand). Actionable econ data was absent, but will return on Tuesday morning with almost all the focus being on ISM Services.

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Calmly Closing at Best Levels Since April

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 100.13 -0.10 10YR 4.218% +0.025% 8/5/2025 8:09AM EST
The new week is less interesting than the previous week in terms of scheduled events with the only top tier data being Tuesday's ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. In addition, the Treasury auction cycle may be a bit more interesting than normal in light of the recent rally and last week's quarterly refunding details (not because the details were surprising, but because they eliminated uncertainty). After a big post-NFP rally, the following Monday is always a bit of a barometer as to...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.58% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.93% +0.02% 8/5/2025
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds take cues from economic data, among other things. The monthly jobs report is routinely the most closely watched economic report as far as bonds are concerned and Friday's caused a significant amount of bond buying (which, in turn, pushes rates down). Friday's reaction was so big that the average mortgage lender didn't fully adjust their rate offerings to match the market movement. This is typical of very la...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Aug 05
8:30AM Jun Trade Gap (bl) Jun $-60.2B $-61.6B $-71.5B
9:45AM Jul S&P Global Services PMI Jul 55.7 55.2 52.9
9:45AM Jul S&P Global Composite PMI Jul 55.1 54.6 52.9
10:00AM Jul ISM N-Mfg PMI Jul 50.1 51.5 50.8
10:00AM Jul ISM Services Employment Jul 46.4 47.2
10:00AM Jul ISM Services New Orders Jul 50.3 51.3
10:00AM Jul ISM Services Prices Jul 69.9 67.5
10:00AM Jul ISM Biz Activity Jul 52.6 54.2
10:10AM Aug IBD economic optimism Aug 50.9 49.2 48.6
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
Wednesday, Aug 06
7:00AM Aug/01 MBA Purchase Index Aug/01 155.6
7:00AM Aug/01 MBA Refi Index Aug/01 739.3
10:30AM Aug/01 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Aug/01 7.698M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 42
2:00PM Fed Cook Speech
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Last week, we said all bets were off until we saw Friday’s jobs report—and that no other piece of economic data moves mortgage rates more reliably. This week proved why that warning is always worth repeating. It’s not that the rest of the week was boring. In fact, the calendar from Monday through Thursday was packed with potentially interesting updates. Highlights included the... READ MORE