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Mixed Reaction Thanks to Messy Internal CPI Components
Mixed Reaction Thanks to Messy Internal CPI Components
There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bonds are just a hair stronger, but it's hard to make a case that they should be based on other internals:
All these bullet points argue for bonds to be selling off today and likely justify the backpedaling in the initial rally. Bonds are still modestly green on the day, but right in line with yesterday's range. It wouldn't be a surprise to see gains continue to erode as markets digest the implications.
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Aug 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 6:00AM | Jul NFIB Business Optimism Index | Jul | 100.3 | 98.6 | 98.6 |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 3.1% | 3% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 2:00PM | Jul Federal budget, $ (bl) | Jul | $-291B | $-215B | $27B |
| Wednesday, Aug 13 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Aug/08 MBA Refi Index | Aug/08 | 777.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Aug/08 MBA Purchase Index | Aug/08 | 158.0 | ||
| 7:30AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Aug/08 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/08 | -3.029M | ||
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
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