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Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied on core CPI almost perfectly hitting unrounded forecasts (.32 vs .31). Additionally, the 2.7% vs 2.8% annual headline number was another step in the right direction. As markets digested the internals, the "yeah but" trading emerged. "Yeah buts" included supercore CPI (core services excluding housing) rising to 0.481 vs 0.212 month-over-month and evidence of the tariff impact via the highest annual core goods inflation since June 2023. So on one hand, declines in housing related inflation are finally helping keep the number down while other categories are pushing back in the other direction, keeping the broader numbers a bit stubborn. The mixed data and mixed market reaction place even more emphasis on the next jobs report when it comes to informing the next big move for rates.
Hot and Cold CPI Raises Stakes For Next Jobs Report
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Aug 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 6:00AM | Jul NFIB Business Optimism Index | Jul | 100.3 | 98.6 | 98.6 |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 3.1% | 3% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jul m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 2:00PM | Jul Federal budget, $ (bl) | Jul | $-291B | $-215B | $27B |
| Wednesday, Aug 13 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Aug/08 MBA Refi Index | Aug/08 | 956.2 | 777.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/08 MBA Purchase Index | Aug/08 | 160.2 | 158.0 | |
| 7:30AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Aug/08 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/08 | 3.037M | -0.8M | -3.029M |
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
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