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New Week, Same Struggles
New Week, Same Struggles
Last week may have ended on a high note with bonds rallying on Powell's Jackson Hole speech, but perception was better than reality at the time. The reality was/is that Friday's rally merely reinforced the trading range that has been ongoing since the August 1st jobs report. At the present pace and considering the econ calendar in the week ahead, we could be waiting for next jobs report before seeing a meaningful challenge to that range (roughly 4.20-4.35 in 10yr yields). This week's key event is Friday's PCE inflation. Even if it doesn't tend to move markets as much as other reports, it's important confirmation. It's also worth more to the Fed when it comes to making a September rate cut decision.
moderately weaker overnight and little-changed so far. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.29
We're All on Team Transitory Again
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Aug 25 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Jul Building Permits (ml) | Jul | 1.362M | 1.354M | 1.393M |
| 10:00AM | Jul New Home Sales (%) (%) | Jul | -0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul New Home Sales (ml) | Jul | 0.652M | 0.63M | 0.627M |
| Tuesday, Aug 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Durable goods (%) | Jul | -4% | -9.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core CapEx (%) | Jul | 0.3% | -0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Jun FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Jun | 0% | -0.2% | |
| 9:00AM | Jun FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Jun | 2.8% | ||
| 9:00AM | Jun CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Jun | 0.4% | ||
| 9:00AM | Jun Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Jun | 2.2% | 2.8% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Aug | 96.4 | 97.2 | |
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
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