Modest, Incidental Victory

Modest, Incidental Victory

Bonds closed with MBS in line with their best levels of the day, up an eighth of a point. 10yr yields fell just under 1bp to 4.264. 2yr yields did better, shedding just over 4bps and extending their gap vs 10yr yields to the widest levels since the volatile days in early April. The AM news cycle credited the news of Trump firing the Fed's Lisa Cook for this "steepening" (a steeper slope between 2 and 10yr yields). Indeed, it may have contributed, but it's debatable whether this level of movement in the curve actually matters.  2s vs 10s have been holding a tight range since April with few days falling outside a range of 0.45 to 0.57. In the bigger picture, bonds are still counting the hours until next Friday's jobs report. 

Market Movement Recap
09:32 AM

fairly flat overnight with some selling at 8:20am CME open. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.281

Latest Video Analysis

Does Yield Curve Steepening Matter

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 100.54 +0.07 10YR 4.237% -0.027% 8/27/2025 3:00PM EST
Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change versus yesterday.  With all of this morning's data now reported, we've seen no measurable impact on bonds.  The overnight session was a different story but not due to econ data.  Rather, bonds responded to Trump's firing of Fed Governor Cook (a process that is more complicated than it sounds) with a steepening of the ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.51% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.88% -0.02% 8/27/2025
Mortgage rates tend to move at least a little every day although they haven't been moving too much in the bigger picture recently. The only truly memorable move int he past few months occurred after the August 1st jobs report. It resulted in a 2-day drop from 6.75% to 6.57%.  The next closest contender was last Friday's reaction to Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech which took the index from 6.62 to 6.52.  So far this week, we've been holding very close to th...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Aug 27
7:00AM Aug/22 MBA Purchase Index Aug/22 163.8 160.3
7:00AM Aug/22 MBA Refi Index Aug/22 894.1 926.1
10:30AM Aug/22 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Aug/22 -2.392M -2M -6.014M
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.195% 0.159%
12:45PM Fed Barkin Speech
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
Thursday, Aug 28
8:30AM Q2 Corporate profits (% ) Q2 -3.3%
8:30AM Aug/16 Continued Claims (k) Aug/16 1970K 1972K
8:30AM Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) Q2 6.3% -3.1%
8:30AM Q2 GDP deflator (%) Q2 2% 3.8%
8:30AM Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final Q2 2.6% 3.5%
8:30AM Q2 GDP (%) Q2 3.1% -0.5%
8:30AM Aug/23 Jobless Claims (k) Aug/23 230K 235K
10:00AM Jul Pending Home Sales (%) Jul -0.1% -0.8%
1:00PM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
6:00PM Fed Waller Speech
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If you read nothing else below, read this: people are talking about stronger odds of a Fed rate cut in September. Some people assume this means mortgage rates would move lower after that potential rate cut.  Those people are wrong, and there is  memorable evidence  from late 2024 when mortgage rates moved quickly higher from long term lows mere days after the Fed's September rate cu... READ MORE