Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start

Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start

Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory, but not for any particular reason (and certainly for no interesting reasons). For those who care about such things, the yield curve continued to steepen (shorter term yields outperforming longer term yields), but this is fairly irrelevant to the mortgage world as MBS are relatively neutral in curve trading terms (durations are short enough not to get hurt when 30yr bonds are hurting, and long enough to avoid getting hurt when 2yr yields are hurting). Speaking of the neutral part of the curve, today's 5yr auction ended up fairly strong and the reaction helped yields hit their best levels of the day in the afternoon.  That said, all of the above is playing out on a micro scale in the bigger picture.  We're basically just drifting from one jobs report to the next.

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Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 100.50 -0.04 10YR 4.240% +0.004% 8/28/2025 8:25AM EST
Not that this week's economic calendar is especially robust, but Wednesday's offerings are especially light. There are no monthly economic reports on tap and no major events.  The only potential market mover on the calendar is the 1pm auction of 5yr Treasury notes.  Treasury auctions are very inconsistent when it comes to their impact on trading levels. They frequently have no impact and occasionally have a modest impact. On rare occasions, they can prompt some of t...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.51% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.88% -0.02% 8/27/2025
It continues to be the case that day-to-day changes in average mortgage rates are very small. Today was no exception in that regard. Nonetheless, today represents a technical "record low" for 2025 with average rates edging just slightly lower than those seen on August 22nd and 26th. Our index (which tracks top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates for ideal scenarios) is now 6.51%, the lowest it's been since October 3rd 2024 when it was 6.26%. Virtually all of the recent ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 28
8:30AM Q2 Corporate profits (% ) Q2 2.0% -3.3%
8:30AM Aug/16 Continued Claims (k) Aug/16 1954.0K 1970K 1972K
8:30AM Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) Q2 6.8% 6.3% -3.1%
8:30AM Q2 GDP deflator (%) Q2 2.0% 2% 3.8%
8:30AM Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final Q2 2.50% 2.6% 3.5%
8:30AM Q2 GDP (%) Q2 3.3% 3.1% -0.5%
8:30AM Aug/23 Jobless Claims (k) Aug/23 229.0K 230K 235K
10:00AM Jul Pending Home Sales (%) Jul -0.4% -0.1% -0.8%
1:00PM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
6:00PM Fed Waller Speech
Friday, Aug 29
8:30AM Jul Personal Income (%) Jul 0.4% 0.3%
8:30AM Jul Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) Jul 0.5% 0.3%
8:30AM Jul Wholesale inventories mm (%) Jul 0.2% 0.1%
8:30AM Jul Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) Jul 2.9% 2.8%
8:30AM Jul Core PCE (m/m) (%) Jul 0.3% 0.3%
9:45AM Aug Chicago PMI Aug 46 47.1
10:00AM Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) Aug 58.6 61.7
10:00AM Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Aug 3.9% 3.4%
10:00AM Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Aug 4.9% 4.5%
10:00AM Aug U Mich conditions Aug 60.9 68.0
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If you read nothing else below, read this: people are talking about stronger odds of a Fed rate cut in September. Some people assume this means mortgage rates would move lower after that potential rate cut.  Those people are wrong, and there is  memorable evidence  from late 2024 when mortgage rates moved quickly higher from long term lows mere days after the Fed's September rate cu... READ MORE