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Fairly Steady After Glut of Low-Consequence Data
Fairly Steady After Glut of Low-Consequence Data
This morning's economic calendar only looks robust on paper. While quarterly GDP results in numerous line items, they're not as important as they might sound. For instance, PCE prices are an important inflation index, but the version released with GDP applies to Q2 and is thus just revising already-released PCE data. Additionally, it is not capturing any of the July inflation that will be reported with tomorrow's monthly PCE. The same "stale" factor applies to everything in today's GDP release (this is why GDP revisions don't have nearly as much market movement potential as an initial release, which we won't get until October). Jobless Claims data rarely has a big impact and today is no exception. While Continued Claims recovered slightly, it wasn't a big enough bounce to be significant.
Flat overnight and little changed since data. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.24
Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Aug 28 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q2 Corporate profits (% ) | Q2 | 2% | -3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/16 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/16 | 1954K | 1970K | 1972K |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q2 | 6.8% | 6.3% | -3.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP deflator (%) | Q2 | 2% | 2% | 3.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q2 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP (%) | Q2 | 3.3% | 3.1% | -0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Aug/23 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/23 | 229K | 230K | 235K |
| 10:00AM | Jul Pending Home Sales (%) | Jul | -0.4% | -0.1% | -0.8% |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 6:00PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| Friday, Aug 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Personal Income (%) | Jul | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Jul | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Jul | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9:45AM | Aug Chicago PMI | Aug | 46 | 47.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Aug | 58.6 | 61.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Aug | 3.9% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Aug | 4.9% | 4.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug U Mich conditions | Aug | 60.9 | 68.0 | |
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