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Generally Exciting, But Specifically Boring
Generally Exciting, But Specifically Boring
Heading into the present week, it was incredibly unlikely that we'd see any exciting volatility in the bond market this week. At the very least, we knew that it was really only Friday's PCE data that carried any notable volatility potential. With 4 days down, the "boring" narrative has prevailed. Like every other day this week, Thursday saw mild movement and low volatility with very little connection between events and market movement. But as it happens, the mild movements have all been in the same direction this week, and they're starting to add up. To wit: 10yr yields just hit their lowest 3pm CME close since August 4th and the 2nd lowest since April. MBS are doing even better and mortgage rates reflect that.
Generally Exciting But Specifically Boring
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Aug 28 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q2 Corporate profits (% ) | Q2 | 2% | -3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/16 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/16 | 1954K | 1970K | 1972K |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q2 | 6.8% | 6.3% | -3.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP deflator (%) | Q2 | 2% | 2% | 3.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q2 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP (%) | Q2 | 3.3% | 3.1% | -0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Aug/23 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/23 | 229K | 230K | 235K |
| 10:00AM | Jul Pending Home Sales (%) | Jul | -0.4% | -0.1% | -0.8% |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 6:00PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| Friday, Aug 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Personal Income (%) | Jul | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Jul | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Jul | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9:45AM | Aug Chicago PMI | Aug | 46 | 47.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Aug | 58.6 | 61.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Aug | 3.9% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Aug | 4.9% | 4.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug U Mich conditions | Aug | 60.9 | 68.0 | |
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