Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
It proved to be an incredibly straightforward day for the bond market. Trading levels were roughly unchanged in early trading. Friendly Fed comments provided a modest boost, but it was the JOLTS data that clearly set the tone. With job openings hitting the lowest levels since late 2020, traders were quick to hit the buy button. Keep in mind, this is July data whereas Friday's jobs report will be August data. Nonetheless, it was an extra measure of labor market weakness that helped confirm last month's lackluster jobs report. If Thursday's data is similarly downbeat, we could see more of a pre-NFP lead-off with yields challenging the recent range floor.
Rallying after JOLTS data. 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.231. MBS up 2 ticks (.06).
Holding post-JOLTS gains. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.3bps at 4.216
Heading out just off the strongest levels with MBS up an eighth and 10yr yields down 4bps at 4.22
Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Sep 03 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Aug/29 MBA Purchase Index | Aug/29 | 158.7 | 163.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/29 MBA Refi Index | Aug/29 | 902.5 | 894.1 | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jul Factory orders mm (%) | Jul | -1.3% | -1.4% | -4.8% |
| 10:00AM | Jul JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jul | 3.208M | 3.142M | |
| 10:00AM | Jul USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jul | 7.181M | 7.4M | 7.437M |
| 1:30PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| 6:00PM | Aug Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Aug | 16.1M | 16.1M | 16.4M |
| Thursday, Sep 04 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Aug Challenger layoffs (k) | Aug | 62.075K | ||
| 8:15AM | Aug ADP jobs (k) | Aug | 65K | 104K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Trade Gap (bl) | Jul | $-75.7B | $-60.2B | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/23 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/23 | 1960K | 1954K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/30 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/30 | 230K | 229K | |
| 9:45AM | Aug S&P Global Services PMI | Aug | 55.4 | 55.7 | |
| 9:45AM | Aug S&P Global Composite PMI | Aug | 55.4 | 55.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Services Employment | Aug | 46.4 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Biz Activity | Aug | 53 | 52.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Services New Orders | Aug | 50.3 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Services Prices | Aug | 69.9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM N-Mfg PMI | Aug | 51 | 50.1 | |
| 12:00PM | Aug/29 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/29 | -3.4M | -2.392M | |
| 12:05PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
