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Another Weak Jobs Report. Another Bond Rally
Another Weak Jobs Report. Another Bond Rally
It's a fairly straightforward morning with NFP coming in much weaker than expected with additional net-negative revisions to the previous 2 months. The only real caveat is that the unemployment rate suggests a more gentle softening of labor market conditions--a fact that likely accounts for 10yr yields "only" being 6-7bps lower in the first half hour of post-NFP trading. The other way to account for it is to say that bonds had already rallied from 4.3 to 4.16 in the 3 days leading up to this morning. That overall move is about the same size as the 8/1 post-NFP rally. Either way, bad news for labor market is good news for rates.
Stronger after NFP. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 6.1bps at 4.097
Rally continues. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 9bps at 4.069
Bonds Positioning For Weak Jobs Report?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Sep 05 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Participation Rate | Aug | 62.3% | 62.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Average earnings mm (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Unemployment rate mm (%) | Aug | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Aug | 22K | 75K | 73K |
| Monday, Sep 08 | |||||
| 11:00AM | Aug Consumer Inflation Expectations | Aug | 3.1% | ||
| 3:00PM | Jul Consumer credit (bl) | Jul | $10.1B | $7.37B | |
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