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These Aren't The NFP Revisions You're Looking For
These Aren't The NFP Revisions You're Looking For
On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This is the report that generated buzz over the "revisions" in general, as those particular revisions created a drastically different picture of the labor market in RECENT months. Speaking of recent, today's NFP revision headline may seem important because it removed an average of 75k jobs per month, but it pertains to a time frame of March 2024 through March 2025. In other words, these are just numbers on a screen with no meaning. The economic realities of that time frame are already well known and thoroughly reflected in a multitude of other data. Today's revision just slaps a different label on ancient history. Month-to-month changes are infinitely more important. More importantly, the market reaction has the final say in this matter and it's telling you not to care.
No real reaction to NFP revision estimates. Modest overnight weakness remains. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.063
A bit more weakness in Treasuries with 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.077. MBS down an eighth.
More Gains Despite Absence of New Motivation
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Sep 09 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Aug NFIB Business Optimism Index | Aug | 100.8 | 101 | 100.3 |
| 10:00AM | Non Farm Payrolls (k) | -911K | -818K | ||
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs (%) | $50 million | |||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| Wednesday, Sep 10 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/05 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/05 | 158.7 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/05 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/05 | 272.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/05 MBA Refi Index | Sep/05 | 902.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Aug Producer Prices (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Aug | 3.5% | 3.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/05 | 2.415M | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
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