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Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades
Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades
When bonds string together several successive days of improvement, the probability of a corrective bounce increases. This is especially true as the rally covers more ground and more time. With 10yr yields dropping nearly 30bps over 4 consecutive sessions, a corrective bounce was a relevant concern, and it arrived today. That said, it was also fairly mild as far as corrective bounces go. On a separate note, many market watchers are confused as to why bonds would lose ground despite a historically large preliminary NFP benchmark revision (released this morning). But this revision pertains to the March 2024 through March 2025 time frame. Not only is that irrelevant to present day market movement, it also fell within most analyst's range of expectations.
post-NFP rally momentum fades
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Sep 10 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/05 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/05 | 169.1 | 158.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/05 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/05 | 297.7 | 272.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/05 MBA Refi Index | Sep/05 | 1012.4 | 902.5 | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Producer Prices (%) | Aug | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Aug | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Aug | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Jul | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 10:30AM | Sep/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/05 | 3.939M | -1.1M | 2.415M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| Thursday, Sep 11 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug/30 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/30 | 1950K | 1940K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 2.9% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep/06 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/06 | 235K | 237K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 3.1% | 3.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.813% | |||
| 2:00PM | Aug Federal budget, $ (bl) | Aug | $-281B | $-291B | |
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