Quieter Calendar; MBS Outperforming
Quieter Calendar; MBS Outperforming
Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close. Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much time trading more than a few bps higher or lower than that for the entire week. Translation: apart from yesterday's attempt to challenge the 4.0% floor, it's been very sideways and uneventful. On the topic of the 4.0% floor, market technicians might be reading some significance into the repeated bounces yesterday amid higher volumes. But one need not be a technician to reconcile the mixed econ data and broad uncertainty with an unwillingness to push an already well-developed post-NFP rally. Bonds will wait for the dot plot before considering the possibility of a true range departure (barring unforeseen shocks, as always).
moderately weaker overnight and holding mostly sideways so far. MBS roughly unchanged and 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.063
Underwhelming Day, But in a Good Way
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Sep 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 10:00AM | Sep Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Sep | 55.4 | 58 | 58.2 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Sep | 3.9% | 3.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep U Mich conditions | Sep | 61.2 | 61.3 | 61.7 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Sep | 4.8% | 4.8% | |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| Monday, Sep 15 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Sep NY Fed Manufacturing | Sep | 3 | 11.90 | |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
