Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck
Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck
Bonds began the week on a stronger note, but not for any glaringly obvious reasons. The same was said about Friday's weakness, so perhaps we'll just call it a wash and assume that traders are getting into (or out of) position(s) ahead of this week's Fed Day. Thus morning's NY Fed Manufacturing data fit the rally narrative, but most of the gains were in place beforehand--not to mention the limited track record of impact from that report. Volumes were exceptionally light and volatility was exceptionally low after the initial gains in the AM. Tuesday's Retail Sales data is more capable of moving the needle.
Initial weakness after Retail Sales, but avoiding sharp selling. MBS unchanged and 10yr only up 1bp at 4.049
Uneventful Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Sep 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Export prices mm (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Aug | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Aug | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales (%) | Aug | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Import prices mm (%) | Aug | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| 9:15AM | Aug Industrial Production (%) | Aug | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Business Inventories (% ) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Sep NAHB housing market indx | Sep | 32 | 33 | 32 |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| 8:00PM | International Monetary Market (IMM) Date (%) | ||||
| Wednesday, Sep 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/12 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/12 | 169.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/12 MBA Refi Index | Sep/12 | 1012.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/12 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/12 | 297.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Aug Housing starts number mm (ml) | Aug | 1.37M | 1.428M | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Building Permits (ml) | Aug | 1.37M | 1.362M | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/12 | 3.939M | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.25% | 4.5% | ||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.6% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.9% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.4% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
