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Bonds Easily Clearing Last Pre-Fed Hurdle
Bonds Easily Clearing Last Pre-Fed Hurdle
After last week's CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning's Retail Sales report. Whereas CPI was merely on the hotter side of the consensus, Retail Sales came out unequivocally stronger, with the control group hitting the 6.0% mark in year-over-year terms. Even after subtracting 3% annual inflation, this is a strong economic signal and it was no surprise to see bonds lose ground immediately following the release. It's been more of a surprise to see a reversal of those losses and a return to modestly positive territory less than an hour after the data. There's actually no obvious reason for it without relying on educated guesses.
Initial weakness after Retail Sales, but avoiding sharp selling. MBS unchanged and 10yr only up 1bp at 4.049
Very decent recovery. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down almost 1bp at 4.033
MBS unchanged to 1 tick (.03) weaker. 10yr down 0.9bps at 4.032
Uneventful Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Sep 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Export prices mm (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Aug | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Aug | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales (%) | Aug | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Import prices mm (%) | Aug | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| 9:15AM | Aug Industrial Production (%) | Aug | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Business Inventories (% ) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Sep NAHB housing market indx | Sep | 32 | 33 | 32 |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| 8:00PM | International Monetary Market (IMM) Date (%) | ||||
| Wednesday, Sep 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/12 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/12 | 169.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/12 MBA Refi Index | Sep/12 | 1012.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/12 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/12 | 297.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Aug Housing starts number mm (ml) | Aug | 1.37M | 1.428M | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Building Permits (ml) | Aug | 1.37M | 1.362M | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/12 | 3.939M | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.25% | 4.5% | ||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.6% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.9% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.4% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
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