Uneventfully Sideways At Modestly Weaker Levels

Uneventfully Sideways At Modestly Weaker Levels

Friday ended up being the least interesting day of the week although it did manage to offer some hope that the post-Fed selling spree has found a limit.  Bonds were just a bit weaker in the overnight session but opening levels were roughly in line with Thursday's weakest levels (so no real additional selling in daily terms). In addition, the opening levels served as support that offered several bounces throughout the day in Treasuries (4.14% in 10yr yields, e.g.). Some would consider such things to be early evidence of the market finding its footing after 2 days of selling. Ultimately though, bigger moves remain dependent on econ data. Next week is fairly light in that regard, but the plethora of Fed speeches could help balance the hawkish takeaway from this week's Powell press conference.

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Uneventfully Sideways At Modestly Weaker Levels

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.49 -0.06 10YR 4.127% +0.024% 9/19/2025 5:00PM EST
Lenders who released initial rate sheets between 9:45 and 10:15am are now seeing an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS prices (5.0).  As such, the jumpiest among them could technically justify a negative reprice, but the risk would be more substantial if we lose a few more ticks. 10yr yields are near today's highs at 4.139, up 3.5bps on the day.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.35% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.90% +0.02% 9/19/2025
Officially, our daily mortgage rate index is a hair lower today than it was yesterday. Your mileage may vary depending on the lender in question. Reason being: some lenders offered mid-day improvements yesterday, but not enough to impact our index.  Those same lenders are generally a hair higher today, but again, the average lender is a hair lower. In the bigger picture, it's just as well to consider today as a "sideways" day, and that's a victory at the moment.  ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
2:30PM Fed Daly Speech
Monday, Sep 22
9:45AM Fed Williams Speech
10:00AM Fed Musalem Speech
12:00PM Fed Hammack Speech
12:00PM Fed Barkin Speech
12:00PM Fed Miran Speech
8:00PM UN General Assembly (%)
Read My Latest Newsletter
There is a reason that last week's newsletter was titled " The Fed is Cutting Rates Next Week, But Not Mortgage Rates ." Indeed, mortgage rates surged HIGHER after this week's Fed rate cut--a seemingly paradoxical move that has exposed widespread confusion about the nature of mortgage rate movement.  Let's clear it up! SHORT VERSION:   The Fed Funds Rate (the thing the ... READ MORE