Branch Manager
Atlas Mortgage Group (A Team of Cornerstone First Mortgage LLC)
License:
2147192

Slow Burn With Little to Blame

Slow Burn With Little to Blame

Bonds started out sideways and lost a minimal amount of ground very gradually throughout the day. While there were multiple Fed speakers on tap, none of the comments garnered any clear reaction. In terms of timing, the losses only really line up with the start of the 9:30am NYSE open--something that can sometimes create tradeflow dynamics that impact bonds--especially when we're only talking about the sort of modest move seen today.

Market Movement Recap
10:49 AM

Slightly weaker after opening flat.  UMBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.136

02:46 PM

10yr yields are up almost 2bps at 4.415 and MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) on the day

Latest Video Analysis

Slow Burn With Little to Blame

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.23 -0.24 10YR 4.149% +0.022% 9/22/2025 5:59PM EST
10yr yields are up almost 2bps at 4.145 and MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) on the day.  Most lenders are now seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS since morning rate sheet print times.  As such, negative reprices are becoming a slightly bigger risk.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.35% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.89% -0.01% 9/22/2025
After hitting the lowest levels in nearly a year (and nearly the lowest levels in 3 years) last Tuesday, rates lurched higher following Wednesday's Fed announcement.  While the Fed cut rates as expected, and while the Fed's rate forecasts were well-received, Powell's guidance pushed back in the other direction.  Economic data on Thursday morning made things worse making for a fairly sharp 2-day spike. Things calmed down after that. Friday's rates were a hair lower...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Sep 22
9:45AM Fed Williams Speech
10:00AM Fed Musalem Speech
12:00PM Fed Hammack Speech
12:00PM Fed Barkin Speech
12:00PM Fed Miran Speech
8:00PM UN General Assembly (%)
Tuesday, Sep 23
9:00AM Fed Bowman Speech
9:45AM Sep S&P Global Services PMI Sep 53.9 54.5
9:45AM Sep S&P Global Manuf. PMI Sep 52 53.0
9:45AM Sep S&P Global Composite PMI Sep 54.6 55.1
10:00AM Fed Bostic Speech
12:35PM Fed Chair Powell Speech
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
8:00PM UN General Assembly (%)
Read My Latest Newsletter
There is a reason that last week's newsletter was titled " The Fed is Cutting Rates Next Week, But Not Mortgage Rates ." Indeed, mortgage rates surged HIGHER after this week's Fed rate cut--a seemingly paradoxical move that has exposed widespread confusion about the nature of mortgage rate movement.  Let's clear it up! SHORT VERSION:   The Fed Funds Rate (the thing the ... READ MORE
Branch Manager
Atlas Mortgage Group (A Team of Cornerstone First Mortgage LLC)
License:
2147192