Volatility Potential Hinges on Shutdown Odds

Under normal circumstance, we look forward to the first Friday of any given month as the day that the jobs report takes a swing at sending the strongest signal for rates of any monthly economic report. This Friday will be no different IF we actually get the jobs report. If, on the other hand, a government shutdown is announced on Wednesday, the jobs report will be delayed and markets will be forced to wait at least several days before a delayed release. There's a notion floating around that the market will simply shift its pent up jobs report reaction to the ADP data that comes out on Wednesday, but in our experience, ADP would still be traded like ADP.  In other words, it would have to come in much higher or lower in order to garner a big reaction. As the week begins, bonds are moderately stronger and traders are focused on an afternoon meeting between Trump and congressional leaders. Hopes are not high for averting a shutdown, but  in any event, the odds will become more clear as newswires circulate circulate.