|
|
|
Stronger Start After ADP Comes in Much Weaker
Stronger Start After ADP Comes in Much Weaker
Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have provided an obvious tailwind. With the government shutdown now confirmed, this will be the week's only broad payroll data. It's certainly not worth nearly as much of a reaction as the jobs report, but it's definitely worth something.
Stronger after ADP data. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.9bps at 4.109
Minimal reaction to ISM data, but off the best levels. 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.113 (up from 4.09 lows). MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) but down 3 ticks (.09) from highs.
Gains Erased by Month-End Trading
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 01 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/26 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/26 | 339.1 | 388.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/26 MBA Refi Index | Sep/26 | 1278.6 | 1609.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/26 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/26 | 172.7 | 174.5 | |
| 8:15AM | Sep ADP jobs (k) | Sep | -32K | 50K | 54K |
| 9:45AM | Sep S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Sep | 52.0 | 52 | 53.0 |
| 10:00AM | Aug Construction spending (%) | Aug | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Manufacturing Employment | Sep | 45.3 | 43.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Sep | 61.9 | 63.2 | 63.7 |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Manufacturing PMI | Sep | 49.1 | 49 | 48.7 |
| 10:30AM | Sep/26 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/26 | 1.792M | 1.5M | -0.607M |
| Thursday, Oct 02 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Sep Challenger layoffs (k) | Sep | 85.979K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep/20 Continued Claims (k) | Sep/20 | 1930K | 1926K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep/27 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/27 | 223K | 218K | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Factory orders mm (%) | Aug | 1.4% | -1.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Sep | 16.2M | 16.1M | |
| 10:30AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
|
|
|
|
