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Slightly Weaker After Mixed ISM Data
Slightly Weaker After Mixed ISM Data
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat/miss in this report is certainly capable of moving the needle, but today's example is mixed. New orders fell sharply, but employment ticked up slightly (and employment may be a bit more tradeable right now for obvious reasons). Prices were basically unchanged at elevated levels. After some modest weakness heading into the data, there's been no major reaction in its wake.
No major reaction to ISM data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.101
Off the weakest levels. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) after being down more than an eighth earlier. 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.109 after hitting 4.117 earlier.
Ultra Quiet Session
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Oct 03 | |||||
| 6:05AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Sep | 50K | 22K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Participation Rate | Sep | 62.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Unemployment rate mm (%) | Sep | 4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Average earnings mm (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9:45AM | Sep S&P Global Services PMI | Sep | 54.2 | 53.9 | 54.5 |
| 9:45AM | Sep S&P Global Composite PMI | Sep | 53.9 | 53.6 | 54.6 |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM N-Mfg PMI | Sep | 50.0 | 51.7 | 52.0 |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Services Employment | Sep | 47.2 | 46.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Services Prices | Sep | 69.4 | 69.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Biz Activity | Sep | 49.9 | 51.8 | 55.0 |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Services New Orders | Sep | 50.4 | 56.0 | |
| 1:30PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 1:40PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| Monday, Oct 06 | |||||
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