AZM Lending
P: (623) 233-4335
1250 E Baseline Rd
Suite 104
Tempe AZ 85283
License:
2411923

Weaker Day, Stronger Week

Saturday, October 4, 2025

Weaker Day, Stronger Week

Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakness following the ISM Services data. The headline wasn't the culprit. Rather, resilience in the employment index and persistence in the price index did the damage. Even then, the damage was minimal in the bigger picture and not sufficient to derail what ended up being a stronger week overall.

Latest Video Analysis

Weaker Day, Stronger Week

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.42 -0.19 10YR 4.121% +0.039% 10/3/2025 5:00PM EST
Weakest Levels of The Day
Bonds have been sliding into weaker territory after the 3pm CME close with 10yr yields up 3.8bps at 4.12 and MBS down 6 ticks (.19) on the day.  Any lender that priced before 10:15am is seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness in 5.0 coupons.  This is enough for some of the jumpier lenders to consider negative reprices.    READ MORE
Alert:
MBS Down More Than an Eighth
MBS Morning:
Slightly Weaker After Mixed ISM Data
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.34% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.84% -0.03% 10/3/2025
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable.  But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 03
6:05AM Fed Williams Speech
8:30AM Sep Non Farm Payrolls (k) Sep 50K 22K
8:30AM Sep Participation Rate Sep 62.3%
8:30AM Sep Unemployment rate mm (%) Sep 4.3% 4.3%
8:30AM Sep Average earnings mm (%) Sep 0.3% 0.3%
9:45AM Sep S&P Global Services PMI Sep 54.2 53.9 54.5
9:45AM Sep S&P Global Composite PMI Sep 53.9 53.6 54.6
10:00AM Sep ISM N-Mfg PMI Sep 50.0 51.7 52.0
10:00AM Sep ISM Services Employment Sep 47.2 46.5
10:00AM Sep ISM Services Prices Sep 69.4 69.2
10:00AM Sep ISM Biz Activity Sep 49.9 51.8 55.0
10:00AM Sep ISM Services New Orders Sep 50.4 56.0
1:30PM Fed Logan Speech
1:40PM Fed Jefferson Speech
Monday, Oct 06
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Small Victory For Rates as Market Waits For Data
10/3/2025 4:42PM
Contrary to mainstream notions regarding the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates moved sharply higher on Fed Day as well as the following day. Since then, they've been in a calm, sideways range, but managed to trickle to the lowest levels in that range by the end of this week. This is a logical outcome considering this week's bond market movement. 10yr Treasury yields (the most visible part of the bon... READ MORE
Mortgage Calculators
-  Mortgage Payment w Amortization
-  Loan Comparison
-  Advanced Loan Comparison
-  Early Payoff
-  Should I Refinance?
-  Rent vs. Buy
-  Blended Rate
AZM Lending
P: (623) 233-4335
1250 E Baseline Rd
Suite 104
Tempe AZ 85283
License:
2411923
Home | Weekly Newsletter | Mortgage Calculators | Library | Econ Calendar
Mortgage Calculators | Weekly Newsletter

These marketing tools are provided by © MBS Live, LLC. All rights reserved.   Learn more about these services.

Reproduction or redistribution of the contents of this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, either in whole or in part, is prohibited without prior written permission of the MBS Live, Inc.

The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.

© MBS Live, LLC. - All rights reserved.

Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.