John "Demo" Lender
VP of Lending
Demo Mortgage Co.
P: (704) 555-1212
M: (407) 555-1234
mbslive.net
10014 Normal Blvd.
Suite B225
Charlotte NC 28044
License:
NMLS: 123456

Weaker Day, Stronger Week

Monday, October 6, 2025

Weaker Day, Stronger Week

Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakness following the ISM Services data. The headline wasn't the culprit. Rather, resilience in the employment index and persistence in the price index did the damage. Even then, the damage was minimal in the bigger picture and not sufficient to derail what ended up being a stronger week overall.

Latest Video Analysis

Weaker Day, Stronger Week

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.30 -0.14 10YR 4.162% +0.045% 10/6/2025 8:37AM EST
Weakest Levels of The Day
Bonds have been sliding into weaker territory after the 3pm CME close with 10yr yields up 3.8bps at 4.12 and MBS down 6 ticks (.19) on the day.  Any lender that priced before 10:15am is seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness in 5.0 coupons.  This is enough for some of the jumpier lenders to consider negative reprices.    READ MORE
Alert:
MBS Down More Than an Eighth
MBS Morning:
Slightly Weaker After Mixed ISM Data
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.34% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.84% -0.03% 10/3/2025
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable.  But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Oct 06
Tuesday, Oct 07
8:30AM Aug Trade Gap (bl) Aug $-60.4B $-78.3B
10:00AM Fed Bostic Speech
10:05AM Fed Bowman Speech
10:10AM Oct IBD economic optimism Oct 49.3 48.7
10:30AM Fed Miran Speech
11:00AM Sep Consumer Inflation Expectations Sep 3.2%
11:30AM Fed Kashkari Speech
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
3:00PM Aug Consumer credit (bl) Aug $14.0B $16.01B
4:05PM Fed Miran Speech
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Small Victory For Rates as Market Waits For Data
10/3/2025 4:42PM
Contrary to mainstream notions regarding the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates moved sharply higher on Fed Day as well as the following day. Since then, they've been in a calm, sideways range, but managed to trickle to the lowest levels in that range by the end of this week. This is a logical outcome considering this week's bond market movement. 10yr Treasury yields (the most visible part of the bon... READ MORE
Mortgage Calculators
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-  Advanced Loan Comparison
-  Early Payoff
-  Should I Refinance?
-  Rent vs. Buy
-  Blended Rate
John "Demo" Lender
VP of Lending
Demo Mortgage Co.
P: (704) 555-1212
M: (407) 555-1234
mbslive.net
10014 Normal Blvd.
Suite B225
Charlotte NC 28044
License:
NMLS: 123456
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.