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Early Gains Erase Overnight Weakness
Early Gains Erase Overnight Weakness
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technical in nature. The subsequent buying brought bonds into positive territory and likely had more to do with the day's only real econ data: the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. The data showed an uptick in unemployment expectations as well as a softening in other labor market metrics. This isn't normally a market mover, but sensitivity is somewhat higher due to the absence of last week's jobs report.
Modestly weaker overnight, but moving into positive territory now. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.142
Gains continue. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.121
Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Oct 07 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 10:05AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 10:10AM | Oct IBD economic optimism | Oct | 48.3 | 49.3 | 48.7 |
| 10:30AM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Sep Consumer Inflation Expectations | Sep | 3.4% | 3.2% | |
| 11:30AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| 3:00PM | Aug Consumer credit (bl) | Aug | 0.36B | $13.5B | $16.01B |
| 4:05PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Oct 08 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/03 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/03 | 339.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/03 MBA Refi Index | Oct/03 | 1278.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/03 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/03 | 172.7 | ||
| 9:20AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Oct/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/03 | 2.25M | 1.792M | |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 3:15PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 5:45PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
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