Loan Officer
Capital City Mortgage, Inc.
License:
Capital City Mortgage, Inc - NMLS # 3320
NMLS # 214569

Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction

Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction

Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yields continue to drift inside the narrow post-Fed range. The absence of big-ticket econ data is a key reason for the lack of volatility. But the lower-tier econ data can still move the needle as evidenced by this morning's NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey showed a slight deterioration in attitudes about the labor market. Bonds moved into stronger territory after that and went on to hit the day's best levels shortly after a well-received 3yr Treasury auction.

Market Movement Recap
10:38 AM

Modestly weaker overnight, but moving into positive territory now.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.142

11:56 AM

Gains continue.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.121

02:43 PM

Temporary gains after strong 3yr auction, but back to pre-auction levels now.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.125

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Turn green After Data and Treasury Auction

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.30 -0.01 10YR 4.127% -0.021% 10/7/2025 5:19PM EST
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technical in nature. The subsequent buying brought bonds into positive territory and likely had more to do with the day's only real econ data: the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations . The data showed an uptick in unemployment expectations as well as a softening in other labor market metrics. This isn't normally a market mover, but...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.38% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.90% +0.00% 10/7/2025
Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut. Paradoxically but not surprisingly, rates actually moved higher after the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate. Contrary to popular belief, Fed comments and policy changes are not the biggest consideration for rates. That honor goes to big ticket economic data like the jobs report.  Case in point, the rate drop in early Septembe...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 07
10:00AM Fed Bostic Speech
10:05AM Fed Bowman Speech
10:10AM Oct IBD economic optimism Oct 48.3 49.3 48.7
10:30AM Fed Miran Speech
11:00AM Sep Consumer Inflation Expectations Sep 3.4% 3.2%
11:30AM Fed Kashkari Speech
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
3:00PM Aug Consumer credit (bl) Aug $0.36B $13.5B $16.01B
4:05PM Fed Miran Speech
Wednesday, Oct 08
7:00AM Oct/03 Mortgage Market Index Oct/03 339.1
7:00AM Oct/03 MBA Refi Index Oct/03 1278.6
7:00AM Oct/03 MBA Purchase Index Oct/03 172.7
9:20AM Fed Musalem Speech
9:30AM Fed Barr Speech
10:30AM Oct/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/03 2.25M 1.792M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
3:15PM Fed Kashkari Speech
5:45PM Fed Barr Speech
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Contrary to mainstream notions regarding the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates moved sharply higher on Fed Day as well as the following day. Since then, they've been in a calm, sideways range, but managed to trickle to the lowest levels in that range by the end of this week. This is a logical outcome considering this week's bond market movement. 10yr Treasury yields (the most visible part of the bon... READ MORE
Loan Officer
Capital City Mortgage, Inc.
License:
Capital City Mortgage, Inc - NMLS # 3320
NMLS # 214569