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Everything Winning on Combo of Trade Tensions, Fed Speak, and Earnings
Everything Winning on Combo of Trade Tensions, Fed Speak, and Earnings
Stocks have made a bit of a round trip since last Friday when Trump's tariff comments sparked a big sell-off. Bonds benefited from that at the time. So far this week, stocks have staged a solid comeback--especially today as upbeat earnings and Fed rate cut expectations provide support. Bonds continue to rally on multiple Fed comments that focus on a weaker labor market underpin an increasingly clear rate cut picture. Many market participants read yesterday's Powell comments as endorsing another cut in October. Bonds mostly had this priced in, but the absence of bad news is good news--at least good enough for more modest gains this morning. That said, gains are tougher to justify from here with yields pushing the lower end of the range boundary.
Slightly stronger overnight and holding gains so far. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.003
MBS now down 1 tick (.03) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from the highs. 10yr up just under 1bp at 4.037
Yields Hug Multi-Week Lows After Powell Speech
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/10 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/10 | 317.2 | 323.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/10 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/10 | 166.0 | 170.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/10 MBA Refi Index | Oct/10 | 1168.0 | 1180.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Oct NY Fed Manufacturing | Oct | 10.70 | -1 | -8.70 |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 12:10PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 12:30PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| 2:30PM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Oct 16 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Sep/20 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Sep/20 | 1930K | 1926K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep/27 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Sep/27 | 223K | 218K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/04 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/04 | 227K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep/27 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Sep/27 | 1930K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/04 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/04 | |||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Sep | 2.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Sep | -0.1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/11 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/11 | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Business Index | Oct | 10 | 23.2 | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Producer Prices (%) | Sep | 0.3% | -0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Prices Paid | Oct | 46.80 | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Sep | 0.7% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Aug Business Inventories (% ) | Aug | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct NAHB housing market indx | Oct | 33 | 32 | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Oct/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/10 | 0.12M | 3.715M | |
| 12:45PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 4:15PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 6:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
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