Fairly Flat At Strongest Levels in Weeks
Fairly Flat At Strongest Levels in Weeks
10yr yields ended the day a mere 0.1bp higher than yesterday (4.029 vs 4.028). Call it "unchanged," and no one will argue. In this case, an unchanged result means we're holding at the best levels since Sep 17. MBS managed to add 2bps to yesterday's close, and are also at 4 week highs. Volume was much lower than yesterday, but still elevated compared to most of last week. That's interesting considering the narrow range and light volatility. As far as the modest mid-day bump in Treasury yields, there were no obvious triggers apart from arcane speculation surrounding liquidity conditions and funding market stress with traders pointing to a big take up in the Fed's standing repo facility. This doesn't really hold water due to the timing of the repo announcement. The only other thought is that we've often noted enigmatic volatility on tax deadline and adjacent days. Either way, it was too small a move to merit any further investigation.
Slightly stronger overnight and holding gains so far. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.003
MBS now down 1 tick (.03) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from the highs. 10yr up just under 1bp at 4.037
fairly flat after mid-day selling. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.045
Yields Hug Multi-Week Lows After Powell Speech
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wednesday, Oct 15 | |||||
12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
7:00AM | Oct/10 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/10 | 317.2 | 323.1 | |
7:00AM | Oct/10 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/10 | 166.0 | 170.6 | |
7:00AM | Oct/10 MBA Refi Index | Oct/10 | 1168.0 | 1180.2 | |
8:30AM | Oct NY Fed Manufacturing | Oct | 10.70 | -1 | -8.70 |
12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
12:10PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
12:30PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
1:00PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
2:30PM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
Thursday, Oct 16 | |||||
8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
8:30AM | Sep/20 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Sep/20 | 1930K | 1926K | |
8:30AM | Sep/27 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Sep/27 | 223K | 218K | |
8:30AM | Oct/04 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/04 | 227K | ||
8:30AM | Sep/27 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Sep/27 | 1930K | ||
8:30AM | Oct/04 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/04 | |||
8:30AM | Sep Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Sep | 2.8% | ||
8:30AM | Sep Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Sep | -0.1% | ||
8:30AM | Oct/11 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) | Oct/11 | |||
8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Business Index | Oct | 10 | 23.2 | |
8:30AM | Sep Producer Prices (%) | Sep | 0.3% | -0.1% | |
8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Prices Paid | Oct | 46.80 | ||
8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Sep | 0.7% | ||
8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
9:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
9:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
9:00AM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
10:00AM | Aug Business Inventories (% ) | Aug | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
10:00AM | Oct NAHB housing market indx | Oct | 33 | 32 | |
10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
12:00PM | Oct/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/10 | 0.12M | 3.715M | |
12:45PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
4:15PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
6:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech |