Fairly Flat At Strongest Levels in Weeks

Fairly Flat At Strongest Levels in Weeks

10yr yields ended the day a mere 0.1bp higher than yesterday (4.029 vs 4.028).  Call it "unchanged," and no one will argue. In this case, an unchanged result means we're holding at the best levels since Sep 17. MBS managed to add 2bps to yesterday's close, and are also at 4 week highs. Volume was much lower than yesterday, but still elevated compared to most of last week. That's interesting considering the narrow range and light volatility. As far as the modest mid-day bump in Treasury yields, there were no obvious triggers apart from arcane speculation surrounding liquidity conditions and funding market stress with traders pointing to a big take up in the Fed's standing repo facility. This doesn't really hold water due to the timing of the repo announcement. The only other thought is that we've often noted enigmatic volatility on tax deadline and adjacent days.  Either way, it was too small a move to merit any further investigation.

Market Movement Recap
09:54 AM

Slightly stronger overnight and holding gains so far.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.003

12:05 PM

MBS now down 1 tick (.03) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from the highs.  10yr up just under 1bp at 4.037

02:49 PM

fairly flat after mid-day selling.  MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.045

Latest Video Analysis

Yields Hug Multi-Week Lows After Powell Speech

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.72 +0.05 10YR 4.029% +0.001% 10/15/2025 5:22PM EST
MBS have quickly moved from the highs of the day to the lows with little apparent provocation.  The move is real considering the sympathy in 10yr yields, up from 4.096 to 4.038 in short order. Some of the jumpier lenders could be considering reprices, but it's a bigger risk for those who just repriced for the better.  Other lenders were generally seeing lower prices during rate sheet print times and are now only down 3 ticks (.09) since then.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.27% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 5.82% -0.01% 10/15/2025
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds are trading at their best levels since September 17th.  Of course there are different kinds of bonds, so we should specify that we're talking about the bonds that are specifically tied to mortgages (MBS or mortgage backed securities).  With this in mind, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates also at the lowest levels since September 17th.  The same was true yesterday, but today marked another incremental improveme...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Oct 15
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
7:00AM Oct/10 Mortgage Market Index Oct/10 317.2 323.1
7:00AM Oct/10 MBA Purchase Index Oct/10 166.0 170.6
7:00AM Oct/10 MBA Refi Index Oct/10 1168.0 1180.2
8:30AM Oct NY Fed Manufacturing Oct 10.70 -1 -8.70
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
12:10PM Fed Bostic Speech
12:30PM Fed Miran Speech
1:00PM Fed Waller Speech
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
2:30PM Fed Schmid Speech
Thursday, Oct 16
8:00AM Fed Barkin Speech
8:30AM Sep/20 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) Sep/20 1930K 1926K
8:30AM Sep/27 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) Sep/27 223K 218K
8:30AM Oct/04 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) Oct/04 227K
8:30AM Sep/27 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) Sep/27 1930K
8:30AM Oct/04 Continued Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) Oct/04
8:30AM Sep Core Producer Prices YY (%) Sep 2.8%
8:30AM Sep Core Producer Prices MM (%) Sep -0.1%
8:30AM Oct/11 Jobless Claims (on hold, shutdown) (k) Oct/11
8:30AM Oct Philly Fed Business Index Oct 10 23.2
8:30AM Sep Producer Prices (%) Sep 0.3% -0.1%
8:30AM Oct Philly Fed Prices Paid Oct 46.80
8:30AM Sep Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) Sep 0.3% 0.7%
8:30AM Sep Retail Sales Control Group MoM Sep 0.7%
8:30AM Sep Retail Sales (%) Sep 0.4% 0.6%
9:00AM Fed Waller Speech
9:00AM Fed Barr Speech
9:00AM Fed Miran Speech
10:00AM Aug Business Inventories (% ) Aug 0.1% 0.2%
10:00AM Oct NAHB housing market indx Oct 33 32
10:00AM Fed Bowman Speech
12:00PM Oct/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/10 0.12M 3.715M
12:45PM Fed Barkin Speech
4:15PM Fed Miran Speech
6:00PM Fed Kashkari Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
Rates have been very flat since September 19th, with the average lender holding inside a tiny 0.05% range through this past Thursday. To put that in context, on September 18th alone (the day after the Fed announcement), rates rose 0.15%. While we're not seeing anything nearly as brisk at present, Friday brought a bit of a departure from the recent monotony with rates finally breaking that narro... READ MORE