Block Trades Setting The Tone After Mostly Data-Free Morning
Block Trades Setting The Tone After Mostly Data-Free Morning
There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown. OK, well only 3 notable absences, but there would have been a 3 week backlog of jobless claims in addition to typically spicier Retail Sales and PPI data. As it stands, Philly Fed was the only scheduled data released at 8:30am and it had no impact. Instead, it was a glut of block trades (read all about them here) just after 9am that sent 10yr yields lurching higher. With that, yields have rejected the 4.0% floor yet again and are now up modestly on the day. MBS are following suit, down just under an eighth of a point.
Slightly stronger overnight and limited reaction to Philly Fed. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.016
Quick reversal after 10s hit 4.0%. Now up half a bp to 4.034. MBS down a quick 3 ticks (.09) and just over an eighth from AM highs.
Bouncing back a bit now. MBS unchanged and 10yr down nearly 1bp at 4.019
Big mystery rally from 12:15 to 12:45. 10yr down 3.8bps at 3.991. MBS up and eighth.
Near best levels. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.6bps at 3.973
Fairly Flat at Strongest Levels in Weeks
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Oct 16 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Business Index | Oct | -12.8 | 10 | 23.2 |
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Prices Paid | Oct | 49.20 | 46.80 | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Oct NAHB housing market indx | Oct | 37 | 33 | 32 |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Oct/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/10 | 3.524M | 0.12M | 3.715M |
| 12:45PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 4:15PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 6:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| Friday, Oct 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Import prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Export prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Building Permits (ml) | Sep | 1.34M | 1.33M | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Housing starts number mm (ml) | Sep | 1.33M | 1.307M | |
| 9:15AM | Sep Industrial Production (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12:15PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
