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Seriously... No One Seems to Know
Seriously... No One Seems to Know
Today's most prominent feature was a large, rapid move in Fed Funds Futures and other short-term rate metrics. Longer term rates benefited as well, but short term rates clearly led the rally. The issue is that there was no obvious catalyst. Some reports suggested "regional bank fears," but it's hard to document that with the timing of market movement. Other considerations may include comments from Fed's Waller, but those were over 2 hours before the bond rally. To be sure, regional banks had a terrible day, but there too, the biggest volume and volatility transpired about 2 hours before the move in Fed Funds Futures. Whatever the truest, most nitty-gritty catalyst, we'll take it!
Slightly stronger overnight and limited reaction to Philly Fed. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.016
Quick reversal after 10s hit 4.0%. Now up half a bp to 4.034. MBS down a quick 3 ticks (.09) and just over an eighth from AM highs.
Bouncing back a bit now. MBS unchanged and 10yr down nearly 1bp at 4.019
Big mystery rally from 12:15 to 12:45. 10yr down 3.8bps at 3.991. MBS up and eighth.
Near best levels. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.6bps at 3.973
Seriously... No One Seems to Know
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Oct 16 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Business Index | Oct | -12.8 | 10 | 23.2 |
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Prices Paid | Oct | 49.20 | 46.80 | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Oct NAHB housing market indx | Oct | 37 | 33 | 32 |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Oct/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/10 | 3.524M | 0.12M | 3.715M |
| 12:45PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 4:15PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 6:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| Friday, Oct 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Import prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Export prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Building Permits (ml) | Sep | 1.34M | 1.33M | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Housing starts number mm (ml) | Sep | 1.33M | 1.307M | |
| 9:15AM | Sep Industrial Production (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12:15PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
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