Strange Combo of Excitement and Boredom

Strange Combo of Excitement and Boredom

Boring stuff first: there was no significant data, news, volume, or volatility today. Bonds gained modest ground early and then held mostly sideways through the 3pm CME close. In that sense, it was just like most other days during the government shutdown (and quite a few even before the shutdown). The excitement is entirely due to outright levels. It was the second best close for 10yr yields in over a year and the 2nd best for 2yr yields in over 3 years (a reflection of the rate cut outlook). 

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Strange Combo of Excitement and Boredom

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.00 +0.10 10YR 3.954% -0.025% 10/21/2025 9:40AM EST
New week. Same grind. We're waiting (likely for a good while longer) for the government shutdown to end before the most relevant econ data can truly exert influence on the bond market in the big picture. On the plus side, the trading in the interim has erred on the bullish side thanks to the available non-gov data and anxiety over trade tensions. So far this morning, bonds have rallied at the 8:20am CME open which is just something that can happen serendipitously due to trade...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.17% -0.05% 15YR Fixed 5.75% -0.05% 10/21/2025
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels in just over a month. It was the 3rd best day in over a year and the 24th best day in over 3 years. The other 23 days weren't too much lower either. The only difference today is a microscopic improvement that makes it the 2nd best day in over a year. In other words, we're hanging out near 3 year lows with minimal volatility. In order to see sharper, more sustained momentum, we'd likely need the government shutdown to end....   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 21
9:00AM Fed Waller Speech
10:30AM NY Fed Treasury Purchases 1 to 2.5 yrs (%) $75 million
3:30PM Fed Waller Speech
Wednesday, Oct 22
7:00AM Oct/17 Mortgage Market Index Oct/17 317.2
7:00AM Oct/17 MBA Refi Index Oct/17 1168.0
7:00AM Oct/17 MBA Purchase Index Oct/17 166.0
10:30AM Oct/17 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/17 3.524M
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
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If we stopped paying attention at noon on Thursday, it was an uneventful week due to an absence of important economic data, a holiday closure, and a lack of volatility in the underlying bond market. After that, things got interesting. To be fair, things were fairly interesting at the end of the previous week owing to an escalation in trade war tensions with China. With minutes to go on Friday, ... READ MORE