Jeff Farnham
President
JTS & Co.
P: (662) 329-9090
www.jts-co.com
4158 HWY 45 N
Columbus MS 39705
License:
NMLS #89796
JTS & Co. NMLS #55275

You Know Things Have Been Pretty Good When...

Thursday, October 23, 2025

You Know Things Have Been Pretty Good When...

Everything's relative when it comes to rates being high or low, but let's agree that the past 2 years have relentlessly driven home the notion of an increasingly flat, narrow range that has perfectly orbited a 10yr yield around 4.34%. If that's our reality, you know things have been pretty good when 3bps of gradual overnight selling leaves yields under 4.0%. As for underlying reasons, the move was so gradual that we don't necessarily need any better explanation than the consolidation vibes discussed in yesterday's recap.  But if you MUST have something to blame, oil prices are up again.

Market Movement Recap
09:32 AM

Slow, steady selling overnight and flat so far at weaker levels.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.3bps at 3.98

11:20 AM

MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 3.995

01:17 PM

Flat at weaker levels.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.9bps at 3.996

Latest Video Analysis

20yr Auction to The Rescue

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.77 -0.19 10YR 3.991% +0.044% 10/23/2025 2:56PM EST
Weakest Levels of The Day
We typically want to see an eighth of a point of weakness in MBS versus either the highs of the day or rate sheet print times in order to send out an alert.   Right now, we're only seeing 3 ticks (.09).  While this isn't classic alert territory, the departure from the AM price plateau has been fairly abrupt. The jumpiest lenders have occasionally repriced for the worse in similar scenarios.    READ MORE
MBS Morning:
You Know Things Have Been Pretty Good When...
MBS Morning:
Modest Early Weakness. Was it About Time?
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.18% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.74% +0.01% 10/23/2025
Mortgage Rates Steady At Long Term Lows
Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged today, on average.  With that, they remain in line with the lowest levels in more than a year and very close to the lowest levels in more than 3 years.  Recent momentum has been moderate and favorable. In the absence of big economic reports that are on hold due to the shutdown, bonds have taken cues from other developments like the new tariffs announced 2 weeks ago and the regional bank drama seen last week.  These m...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Oct 23
10:00AM Sep Exist. home sales % chg (%) Sep 1.5% -0.2%
10:00AM Sep Existing home sales (ml) Sep 4.06M 4.1M 4M
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 26
Friday, Oct 24
8:00AM Sep Building Permits (ml) Sep
8:30AM Sep y/y Headline CPI (%) Sep 3.1% 2.9%
8:30AM Sep m/m Headline CPI (%) Sep 0.4% 0.4%
8:30AM Sep m/m CORE CPI (%) Sep 0.3% 0.3%
8:30AM Sep y/y CORE CPI (%) Sep 3.1% 3.1%
8:30AM Sep m/m CORE CPI (%) Sep
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Composite PMI Oct 53.9
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI Oct 52 52.0
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Services PMI Oct 53.5 54.2
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Oct 4.6% 4.7%
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Oct 3.7% 3.7%
10:00AM Oct U Mich conditions Oct 61.0 60.4
10:00AM Sep New Home Sales (ml) Sep 0.71M 0.8M
10:00AM Oct Consumer Sentiment (ip) Oct 55 55.1
10:00AM Sep New Home Sales (%) (%) Sep 20.5%
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Mortgage Rates Aren't Too Far From 3 Year Lows
10/17/2025 4:42PM
If we stopped paying attention at noon on Thursday, it was an uneventful week due to an absence of important economic data, a holiday closure, and a lack of volatility in the underlying bond market. After that, things got interesting. To be fair, things were fairly interesting at the end of the previous week owing to an escalation in trade war tensions with China. With minutes to go on Friday, ... READ MORE
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-  Rent vs. Buy
-  Blended Rate
Jeff Farnham
President
JTS & Co.
P: (662) 329-9090
www.jts-co.com
4158 HWY 45 N
Columbus MS 39705
License:
NMLS #89796
JTS & Co. NMLS #55275
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.