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CPI Just as Risky as Usual--Perhaps More So
CPI Just as Risky as Usual--Perhaps More So
Bonds sold off on Thursday in a move that was as easy to chalk up to position-squaring ahead of CPI than anything else. The recent uptick in oil prices is also worth noting, but only if we remember that correlation is not always causality when it comes to that pairing. Given the absence of big ticket econ reports during the shutdown, Friday morning's CPI is getting plenty of attention--more than it deserves, to be sure, and much more than it would outside a shutdown. That said, the data is just as "live" in terms of its potential to cause volatility.
Slow, steady selling overnight and flat so far at weaker levels. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.3bps at 3.98
MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 3.995
Flat at weaker levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.9bps at 3.996
CPI Just as Risky as Usual--Perhaps More So
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Oct 23 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Sep Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Sep | 1.5% | -0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Existing home sales (ml) | Sep | 4.06M | 4.1M | 4M |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 26 | |||
| Friday, Oct 24 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Sep Building Permits (ml) | Sep | |||
| 8:30AM | Sep y/y Headline CPI (%) | Sep | 3.1% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep m/m Headline CPI (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep m/m CORE CPI (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep y/y CORE CPI (%) | Sep | 3.1% | 3.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep m/m CORE CPI (%) | Sep | |||
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Composite PMI | Oct | 53.9 | ||
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Oct | 52 | 52.0 | |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Services PMI | Oct | 53.5 | 54.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Oct | 4.6% | 4.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Oct | 3.7% | 3.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct U Mich conditions | Oct | 61.0 | 60.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep New Home Sales (ml) | Sep | 0.71M | 0.8M | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Oct | 55 | 55.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep New Home Sales (%) (%) | Sep | 20.5% | ||
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