Joshua Daniel
President
NAV Home Loans
License:
2708570

Decent Recovery After AM Backtracking

Decent Recovery After AM Backtracking

CPI data was a mixed bag for bonds.  Top-line numbers fueled a quick rally and digestion of the details brought us back to negative territory (albeit with help from stronger S&P PMI data). Bonds found their footing shortly after 10am at just slightly stronger levels and then stayed mostly sideways through the close.  Pretty ho-hum CPI day given all the anticipation...

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Decent Recovery After AM Backtracking

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.87 +0.13 10YR 4.002% +0.000% 10/24/2025 5:00PM EST
S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 54.8 vs -- f'cast, 53.9 prev S&P Global Manuf. PMI (Oct) 52.2 vs 52 f'cast, 52.0 prev S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 55.2 vs 53.5 f'cast, 54.2 prev MBS are off nearly an eighth from their post-data highs and 10yr yields are back into negative territory after the S&P PMI data.  As is almost always going to be the case, the services index carries more weight and it rose to 55.2 from ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.19% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.76% +0.02% 10/24/2025
This morning brought the release of the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the two biggest inflation reports from the U.S. government, and the only government inflation report that's coming out during the shutdown.  With big government data being a key consideration for interest rates , this special release got extra attention. Core monthly inflation was lower than expected (.227% vs 0.3 forecast) as was the annual level at 3.0% versus a media...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 24
8:00AM Sep Building Permits (ml) Sep
8:30AM Sep y/y Headline CPI (%) Sep 3% 3.1% 2.9%
8:30AM Sep m/m Headline CPI (%) Sep 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%
8:30AM Sep m/m CORE CPI (%) Sep 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
8:30AM Sep y/y CORE CPI (%) Sep 3% 3.1% 3.1%
8:30AM Sep m/m CORE CPI (%) Sep
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Composite PMI Oct 54.8 53.9
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI Oct 52.2 52 52.0
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Services PMI Oct 55.2 53.5 54.2
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Oct 4.6% 4.6% 4.7%
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Oct 3.9% 3.7% 3.7%
10:00AM Oct U Mich conditions Oct 58.6 61.0 60.4
10:00AM Sep New Home Sales (ml) Sep 0.71M 0.8M
10:00AM Oct Consumer Sentiment (ip) Oct 53.6 55 55.1
10:00AM Sep New Home Sales (%) (%) Sep 20.5%
Monday, Oct 27
8:30AM Sep Core CapEx (%) Sep 0.6%
8:30AM Sep Durable goods (%) Sep 0.3% 2.9%
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
Read My Latest Newsletter
The end of October brings the next Fed announcement and it is a 100% certainty that they will be cutting rates again. Many people believe this means lower mortgage rates. Many people are wrong. To be perfectly fair, mortgage rates COULD move lower after the Fed rate cut, but they could also move higher. We've certainly seen our fair share of counterintuitive reactions to rate cuts in the past. ... READ MORE
Joshua Daniel
President
NAV Home Loans
License:
2708570