Pre-Fed Consolidation

As the shutdown continues, econ data remains sparse. This makes for smaller, more range-bound movement overall with last week making a decent case to established the floor of the current range in Treasury yields. A good-but-not-good-enough CPI helped seal the deal on Friday, but the impending Fed announcement is just as relevant.  The market has already priced in the 25bp cut and has moved on to the next consideration: a dovish vs hawkish press conference. Combine that uncertainty with the need to underwrite the week's Treasury auction cycle and it's completely forgivable to see 10yr yields respecting a floor of 3.97 after briefly challenging it last week.